Updated September 2017.

Current research

Life during structural transformation
(with Huikang Ying) Does the Kuznets process lead to a Kuznets curve? December 2014. To be revised.

Papers that are “sleeping”

Convergence behaviour in exogenous growth models
(with Jochonia Mathunjwa) We study the approximations used in the study of growth and convergence, and discuss heterogeneity in convergence rates across countries and over time. April 2007.

Dualism and aggregate productivity
What are the consequences of intersectoral wage differentials and urban unemployment for aggregate productivity, wages and returns to capital, factor shares, and sectoral structure? To be revised.

Does external trade promote financial development?
(with Yongfu Huang) An empirical study of the effects of trade on finance. August 2005.

GMM estimation of empirical growth models
(with Stephen Bond and Anke Hoeffler) We advocate the use of system GMM to estimate growth models, rather than the more usual Arellano-Bond method.

Structural change and Europe’s Golden Age
Labour reallocation and productivity growth in post-war Europe. To be revised.

Recently published or forthcoming

Foreign aid and domestic absorption
(with Nicolas Van de Sijpe) What does a new instrument say about aid absorption?
Journal of International Economics, September 2017, 431-443.

Virtuous circles and the case for aid
(with Patrick Carter) How would virtuous circles modify the case for aid?
IMF Economic Review, 65(2), June 2017, 397-425.

Morten Jerven, and what economists do and don’t get wrong
Debating Morten Jerven’s work: Denis Cogneau, Jonathan Temple, Dietrich Vollrath
Development Policy Review, 34(6), 901-905.

Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers
(with James Rockey) How useful is Bayesian Model Averaging?
European Economic Review, 81(1), January 2016, 86-102.

Dynamic aid allocation
(with Paddy Carter and Fabien Postel-Vinay) We examine optimal aid transfers from North to South in the presence of absorption constraints.
Journal of International Economics, 95(2), March 2015, 291-304.

Regional growth and regional decline
(with Holger Breinlich and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano) A review of the economics of regional prosperity.
In Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 2B, The Netherlands: North-Holland, January 2014.

Main papers

• Foreign aid and domestic absorption
  Journal of International Economics, September 2017, 431-443.
  (with Nicolas Van de Sijpe)

• Virtuous circles and the case for aid
  IMF Economic Review, 65(2), June 2017, 397-425.
  (with Patrick Carter)

• Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers
  European Economic Review, 81(1), January 2016, 86-102.
  (with James Rockey)

• Dynamic aid allocation
  Journal of International Economics, 95(2), March 2015, 291-304.
  (with Paddy Carter and Fabien Postel-Vinay)

• Regional growth and regional decline
  Handbook of Economic Growth, Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.), Volume 2B, The Netherlands: North-Holland, January 2014.
  (with Holger Breinlich and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano)

• The calibration of CES production functions
  Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(2), June 2012, 294–303.

• Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK
  Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(4), December 2010, 937-956.
  (with Cliff Attfield)

• Aid and conditionality
  Handbook of Development Economics, Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig (eds.) Vol. 5, The Netherlands: North-Holland, 2010, pp. 4415-4523.

• Macroeconomic stability and the distribution of growth rates
  World Bank Economic Review, December 2009, 23(3), 443-479
  (with Vatcharin Sirimaneetham)

• The geography of output volatility
  Journal of Development Economics, November 2009, 90(2), 163-178
  (with Adeel Malik)

• The econometrics of convergence
  Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics
  Terence C. Mills and Kerry Patterson (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
  (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)

• The methods of growth econometrics
  Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics
  Terence C. Mills and Kerry Patterson (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
  (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)

• Labor markets and productivity in developing countries
  Review of Economic Dynamics, January 2009, 12(1), 183-204
  (with Mathan Satchi)

• Dualism and cross-country growth regressions
  Journal of Economic Growth, September 2006, 11(3), 187-228
  (with Ludger Wößmann)

• Rich nations, poor nations: how much can multiple equilibria explain?
  Journal of Economic Growth, March 2006, 11(1), 5-41
  (with Bryan S. Graham)

• Growth econometrics
  Handbook of Economic Growth, P. Aghion and S. N. Durlauf (eds.), Volume 1A, North-Holland, 2005, pp. 555-677
  (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)

• Dual economy models: a primer for growth economists
  The Manchester School, July 2005, 73(4), 435-478

• The long-run implications of growth theories
  Journal of Economic Surveys, July 2003, 17(3), 497-510

• Covariate measurement error in quadratic regression
  International Statistical Review, April 2003, 71(1), 131-150
  (with Jouni Kuha)

• Growing into trouble: Indonesia after 1966
  In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth
  Dani Rodrik (ed.), Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2003

• The assessment: the New Economy
  Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Autumn 2002, 18(3), 241-264

• Openness, inflation and the Phillips curve: a puzzle
  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 2002, 34(2), 450-468

• Growth effects of education and social capital in the OECD countries
  OECD Economic Studies, 2001, 33, 57-101

• Generalizations that aren’t? Evidence on education and growth
  European Economic Review, May 2001, 45(4-6), 905-918

• Inflation and growth: stories short and tall
  Journal of Economic Surveys, September 2000, 14(4), 395-426

• Growth regressions and what the textbooks don’t tell you
  Bulletin of Economic Research, July 2000, 52(3), 181-205

• The new growth evidence
  Journal of Economic Literature, March 1999, 37(1), 112-156

• Initial conditions, social capital, and growth in Africa
  Journal of African Economies, October 1998, 7(3), 309-347

• Social capability and economic growth
  Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1998, 113(3), 965-990
  (with Paul A. Johnson)

• Robustness tests of the augmented Solow model
  Journal of Applied Econometrics, July-August 1998, 13(4), 361-375

• Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization
  European Economic Review, July 1998, 42(7), 1343-1362 (with Joachim Voth).

• Equipment investment and the Solow model
  Oxford Economic Papers, January 1998, 50, 39-62.

Other papers

• Morten Jerven, and what economists do and don’t get wrong
  Development Policy Review, 34(6), November 2016, 901-905.

• Aid conditionality
  The Companion to Development Studies (third edition). Vandana Desai and Robert B. Potter (eds.), Routledge, 2014.

• Implementation cycles and the New Economy in retrospect
  Knowledge, Innovation and Internationalization: Essays in Honour of Cesare Imbriani, Piergiuseppe Morone (ed.), Routledge, 2013.
  (with Pasquale Scaramozzino and Nir Vulkan)

• Aggregate production functions, growth economics, and the part-time tyranny of the identity: a reply to Felipe and McCombie
  International Review of Applied Economics, 24(6), November 2010, 685-692.

• Review article: “One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions and Economic Growth” by Dani Rodrik
  Economic Journal, February 2009, Vol. 119, No. 535, F224-F230.

• International income convergence.
  The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, K. A. Reinert, R. S. Rajan, A. J. Glass and L. S. Davis (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2008.

• Balanced growth
  The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (second edition), S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, May 2008.

• Discussion of Chamon, Mauro and Okawa, Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants.
  Economic Policy, April 2008, 54, 286-288.

• Discussion of Inklaar, Timmer and van Ark, Market services productivity across Europe and the US.
  Economic Policy, January 2008, 53, 175-177.

• Discussion of Easterly, Are aid agencies improving?
  Economic Policy, October 2007, 52, 673-675.

• Discussion of Fabrizio and Mody, Can budget institutions counteract fiscal indiscipline?
  Economic Policy, October 2006, 48, 728-730.

• Aggregate production functions and growth economics
  International Review of Applied Economics, July 2006, 20(3), 301-317

• Growth and wage inequality in a dual economy
  Bulletin of Economic Research, April 2005, 57(2), 145-169

• Education and economic growth
  Economic Growth and Government Policy. HM Treasury, April 2001.

• A positive effect of human capital on growth
  Economics Letters, October 1999, 65(1), 131-134.

• Central bank independence and inflation: good news and bad news
  Economics Letters, November 1998, 61(2), 215-219.

• Openness and TFP growth: comments and new directions.
  Openness and growth, J. Proudman and S. Redding (eds.), Bank of England, 1998.

• Growth in open economies. In P. Aghion and P. Howitt,
  Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press 1998
  (with Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt and Stephen Redding)

• Testing for endogenous growth. In P. Aghion and P. Howitt,
  Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press 1998
  (with Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt)

• St. Adam and the Dragons: neoclassical economics and the East Asian miracle
  Oxford Development Studies, October 1997, 25(3), 279-300.

Reprints

Inflation and growth: stories short and tall. Included in 25th Anniversary Virtual Issue: The Top 25 Papers in 25 Years: The Editors’ Cut. Journal of Economic Surveys, 2011. Previously published: 2000.

Generalizations that aren’t? Evidence on education and growth. Reprinted in Belfield, C. R. (ed.) Modern classics in the economics of education, Edward Elgar, 2006. Previously published: 2001.

The long-run implications of growth theories. Reprinted in George, D., Oxley, L. and Carlaw, K. (2003). Surveys in Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics. Blackwell, Oxford. Previously published: 2003.

The new growth evidence. Reprinted in Dutt, A. K. (ed.) The political economy of development, Volume 1. Development, growth and income distribution. Elgar Reference Collection. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, vol. 140. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass.: Elgar; distributed by American International Distribution Corporation, Williston, Vt., 2002, pp. 31-75. Previously published: 1999.